Nasrallah assassinated: The Shiite axis faces its greatest test

The Middle East is still grappling with the consequences of Israel's massive attack on Hezbollah's underground headquarters in Dahiyah on Friday evening, which led to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader for the past 32 years. Several senior Hezbollah officials were eliminated alongside him, and an assessment of the Shiite terrorist organization's potential recovery under new leadership will be clearer once there is more information regarding who else was killed alongside him.

Nasrallah’s elimination is a critical psychological blow. While Hezbollah cannot be defined as a one-man organization, Nasrallah had become increasingly centralized and powerful in recent years. His dominance and iconic status will make it challenging for his successor to fill his shoes.

Hassan Nasrallah and bombings in Lebanon.

Nasrallah became the organization’s secretary general in 1992 after the assassination of his predecessor, Abbas Musawi. Initially not widely known, Nasrallah was backed by Iran, which recognized his potential and supported his election. Over the past three decades, he built both his personal status and that of Hezbollah, to the extent that he was regarded as the second most important figure after Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, within the Iran-backed Shiite axis in the Middle East. This axis includes organizations in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, with Hezbollah being the "jewel in the crown."

Nasrallah, a cleric and a skilled orator, was born in Beirut to a family from a town near Tyre in southern Lebanon. He began his career in the rival Shiite organization Amal but moved to Hezbollah in 1982, along with his mentor Abbas Musawi, following its formation. There, he became involved in both military and political activities.

Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah grew into the most significant force in Lebanon, fulfilling three roles: a political party, a provider of social services to the Shiite community, and a formidable military organization. To sustain this multi-faceted entity, Hezbollah, during Nasrallah’s tenure, became an economic empire with financial support from both Lebanese and foreign sources. In addition to generous Iranian aid, Hezbollah capitalized on Lebanon’s resources, earning it the moniker "a state within a state." This behavior contributed significantly to Lebanon's economic collapse about five years ago, obstructing any political or economic recovery and deterring investors, particularly from Gulf nations.

Though Nasrallah often claimed to understand Israel, he misjudged the situation twice in critical ways. First, after the 2006 Lebanon War, which caused widespread destruction, Nasrallah admitted that had he known Israel’s response would be so severe, he wouldn’t have ordered the kidnapping of IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, which sparked the war.

Nasrallah’s fatal mistake came on October 8, when he decided to open a "support front" for Gaza and refused to separate the two arenas. He failed to grasp the message Israel sent through the explosion of Hezbollah’s pagers network and continued to repeat slogans about the unity of the fronts. He missed another warning when the leadership of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force was eliminated last Friday in Dahiyah. Despite his obsessive focus on personal security, having barely left his bunker in the last 18 years, Nasrallah underestimated Israel’s resolve to eliminate him, leading to his final, fatal error.

His assassination is a significant blow to the Shiite axis. The rapid destruction of Hezbollah’s assets and leadership within just ten days should cause serious concern within Iran. Hezbollah’s poor performance on the battlefield, coupled with Israeli intelligence’s complete penetration of the organization, contradicts the claims of the Shiite axis leaders about Hezbollah’s strength. The swift collapse of Hezbollah, which has lost most of its political and military leadership, raises difficult questions for the high command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who have invested heavily in Hezbollah’s power-building for decades.

The Iranians, more than anyone, understand the magnitude of this setback. They know that choosing Nasrallah’s successor will be crucial to rebuilding Hezbollah and maintaining its position. However, after the rapid eliminations of the past few days, their options are limited. Hezbollah could attempt to bring back retired senior military officials or promote younger leaders, but neither choice is ideal given the current circumstances, where every Hezbollah move is exposed to Israeli intelligence, allowing the IDF to strike at will.

This blow to Hezbollah could also ignite unrest within Iran. Popular protests have already voiced discontent with the regime's decision to divert precious resources to foreign terrorist organizations, especially Hezbollah. Now, with this massive investment seemingly wasted in just a few days, and Hezbollah's battlefield performance lagging behind even that of Hamas, the Iranian public may start to ask uncomfortable questions of its leadership. This discontent echoes the sentiments expressed by Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who recently emphasized his desire to reform Iran’s economy and ease sanctions through dialogue with the West. The Iranian public is increasingly frustrated by the use of the country’s oil revenues to fund foreign ventures like Hezbollah, which have failed to deliver the expected results.

Hezbollah’s collapse is a significant embarrassment for Iran. Long seen as the protector of Lebanon and the forefront of Iran’s regional strategy, Hezbollah’s decision to join the conflict with Israel on behalf of Hamas in Gaza could further devastate Lebanon. Iran will need to reassess how such a prized asset fell so quickly, but for that to happen, it will need a period of calm. To start the rebuilding process and maintain the Shiite axis, Iran will likely avoid an all-out war with Israel that could threaten its key interests, including oil fields and nuclear facilities. Iran may opt for limited conflict with Israel while seeking to reduce tensions in exchange for sanctions relief from the West.

While Hezbollah remains a significant player in Lebanon, especially among the Shiite community, the organization will not disappear despite the blows it has suffered. Over the years, Hezbollah has built parallel institutions that provide health, education, finance, and other services to the Shiite community. These structures remain intact, and it’s too early to write off the organization entirely.

However, Nasrallah’s assassination and Hezbollah’s current weakness create a small window of opportunity to alter the political reality in Lebanon and possibly the region. Hezbollah will likely be focused on internal rebuilding for the foreseeable future, which may allow other forces, both in Lebanon and abroad, to rise. Lebanon, a dysfunctional country without a president, permanent government, or even a central bank governor, is ripe for change. The Sunni Axis, led by Saudi Arabia and supported by the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Egypt, and Qatar, is closely watching Lebanon and may step in to help rebuild the country once Hezbollah’s influence wanes. However, they have refrained from doing so until now due to Hezbollah’s dominance by force of arms.