"Whoever controls quantum computing will control the world"

Quantum computing will unlock untapped global data, transform industries from pharma to finance, and redraw the global tech map, but Israel is lagging behind, warns Haim Israel, Managing Director and Global Strategist at Bank of America. In an interview, he calls quantum “the most important technological race of our generation,” one that could eclipse even artificial intelligence in its economic impact.

Two weeks ago your department published a dramatic report which stated that quantum computing could be as big a revolution for humanity as fire or the internet, one that will transform every economic sector and impact humanity as a whole. What is it that underlies that radical comparison?

“We live in a world of technology, where the quantity of data grows exponentially. According to our research, we generate over 400 quintillion bytes of data every day. That is a figure whose size we can’t even fathom, and it continues to grow all the time. But due to our technological limitations, we use only 1% of that. In other words, 99% of global knowledge is not saved, not consumed and not used. We do not have the suitable tools. Although our computing powers are continuously growing, we are still unable to do all that we want and to utilize more of the global data. Quantum computing is the first technology to enable it.”

What about Artificial Intelligence?

“I call AI quantum computing for the masses. Artificial intelligence, and I am truly simplifying it, is an algorithm that knows how to take a great deal of data and identify statistical connections. It does so very well, so it enables us to use much more data today. It is a huge revolution. Quantum computing will take it to levels that humanity cannot even perceive. For example, take Google’s announcement about their quantum chip that, in five minutes, successfully completed a complex calculation that even the most powerful computer today would have done in 10 septillion (10, followed by 25 zeroes – MCR) years – longer than the universe exists. And we are seeing more such announcements being published.”

But it’s all still in theory.

“Of course, it cannot be implemented yet, it just shows the potential. Endless capabilities within no time. That means that, if I am using 1% of global data today because I do not have the capacity to use more, I will be able to use 2, 3, 4, 10% of global data in no time. Time is also a very important dimension of this field.”

Where can it take us?

“These are things that humanity hasn’t dreamt of until now. Going back to AI, it is a miniscule of quantum computing’s capabilities. Imagine where we can go if we take this AI capability and multiply it by thousands and millions. Another thing to acknowledge is that it is not a technology that we’ve ever seen. You and I will not have a quantum computer on our desk. It will not send me e-mails or run Fortnite. It is a computer built for completely different computations. It reaches the top of our best scientific capabilities, solving the truly complex issues that humanity cannot reach.”

Your report stated that, by 2033, quantum computing would achieve a quantum advantage , i.e. it will begin to perform useful tasks more efficiently and faster than classic computers. What led you to publish that forecast now?

“The joke in quantum computers over the last three decades is that it will happen in 30 years. Whenever we talked about it, people would say “in 30 years”. Not anymore. The technology is ripening. We don’t want to wake up one day, like we did in November 2022 (when ChatGPT was launched – MCR), only to discover that the world had completely changed. I don’t know exactly when it will happen, but we want to be prepared. The schedules are constantly getting shorter.”

How does it happen?

“There are several concurrent occurrences that, in our opinion, significantly ramped up the timetables. Artificial Intelligence was a major boost to technology, including that of quantum computing. It led to breakthroughs we never dreamt of. There is a technological breakthrough in this field every day. The other thing that AI greatly impacted is the technological race. If we learned anything from AI entering our lives, it’s that whoever has AI capabilities, enjoys a huge advantage. So just think of what that means for quantum computing. It takes it thousands of times further. Large countries and companies have suddenly started to invest enormous amounts – and I’m talking about changes in the last two years – and the reason is very simple: whoever controls the technology, controls the world. It’s as simple as that.”

Explain.

“Quantum computing is the first technology in human history that can take us back to the starting line, or to the finish line. Until today, the U.S. controls the semiconductor industry. China is investing funds and efforts, actually getting closer and it will eventually get there, but right now, the U.S. is the world leader. Quantum computing is a completely different technology. It can hit Reset on everything. It can take everyone back to the starting line. Whoever controls this technology will have a huge advantage and the entity controlling the previous technology will not necessarily get there first. The U.S, China and the EU are investing unfathomable amounts to attain technological maturity.”

Where is Israel in this race?

“Behind. There are a few ventures in Israel, like the Weizmann Institute, and there are quite a few startups here but, at the end of the day, the top three in terms of investments are the U.S., China and the EU. We’re also seeing ventures in Japan and other places around the world, but Israel is not among them. Indeed, Israel announced several years ago that it wants to be a “quantum threshold state”, but I don’t even know what that means. I think that, just as in AI, we are far behind.”

What about regulation?

“The regulator is not there, for two main reasons. First, the technology is moving so fast – and AI is a great example – that the regulator cannot figure out where it is and what’s going on. So indeed, there are guidelines, but they are very general. Due to technological speeds, most regulators don’t understand where we’re at and what the ramifications are. The second problem, which is not addressed enough, is that regulators, especially in the leading countries, have no interest in restricting the technology. Control of technology enables a huge advantage for the economy. Why would they want to stop it? And especially when it comes to quantum computing, which is thousands of times more powerful than AI? It’s the opposite, the state wants to control this technology. Quantum computing, by the way, is a technology that the governments of the U.S. and Israel contribute to its development. They have no desire and no interest in stopping this technology”.

Not even if it means preventing its exploitation?

“It’s human nature to think that everything will be alright, that we’ll all be happy. I think that there are many dangers and they are growing exponentially. Today, we can see the negative side of AI in deep fakes, cyber, privacy, hackers or anything else. Quantum computing can take all of the evil we see today to much higher and more extreme levels”.

For example?

“Theoretically, quantum computing is the end of encryption. There is no code that can withstand a quantum computer. It means that all of the world’s encryption can be breached. Quantum cryptography is one of the hottest fields today and it already exists because you don’t need supercomputers with millions of qubits in order to run such algorithms. You can do it with smaller computers too. And what does this mean for blockchain? That’s a field that can change from many directions. After all, how does currency mining work? There’s an algorithm and, each time I mine a currency, the algorithm becomes harder and more complex, requiring more computing power and energy. All of that is irrelevant for quantum computing. A quantum computer can mine it all in milliseconds. That problem no longer exists. So that field can completely change”.

Sounds disturbing.

“I’m not optimistic. It would be naïve to say that everything will be okay. I always give the example of nuclear energy, which could’ve served the world, provided cheap and clean energy, but we decided to use it to make bombs. That was a decision made by human beings and we are exactly at that point again. We’ve never seen such rapid and powerful technological change as we have in the last two years and it’s nothing compared to what’s coming. We’re not even at the preview stage and regulation is far behind. We’re just beginning to understand how strong and destructive AI can be, and we’re not dealing with it”.

There have been many forecasts throughout the years of developments that will change humanity, like the Metaverse for example. The vast majority did not pan out. Why will it be different this time?

“Technologies must be realized in several ways. We must see if there is a case study, if there is a killer application and what the timeframe is. Metaverse did not have the killer application. No one was able to explain why we needed it and there was no technology available to properly build it in an inexpensive manner. According to Meta’s vision, it was supposed to cost hundreds of billions of dollars and there is no business model to support it. It’s completely different with quantum computing and AI”.

What do you think will be the first application for a quantum computer?

“A quantum computer is supposed to solve problems that humanity cannot at the moment. If I look on the positive side of course, pharma and anything related to chemicals is classic. AI has already changed this industry completely. The second thing that I think we’ll see much faster is in the encryption and cybersecurity industries. Anything related to big data is going to change completely.”